ES (S&P e‑mini)

Sentiment: Cautious bearish while trading under the value shelf.
Key inflection (pivot): 6469–6474. Reclaim turns tape neutral to bullish; below keeps sellers in control.
Resistance: 6474 → 6484/6488 → 6491.75 (session high).
Support: 6463–6461 → 6460 → 6453.25 → 6444.
Notes: Big volume slab 6470–6485 is the decision zone; acceptance back above it often fuels a quick push to 6494–6503.

NQ (Nasdaq e‑mini)

Sentiment: Weakest of the three; tech is lagging and still below value.
Key inflection (pivot): 23,834–23,850. Above = rotation back into the 23,880–23,920 value; below = sellers press.
Resistance: 23,871 → 23,900–23,920 (major HVN shelf) → 23,943 → 23,962–23,966.75.
Support: 23,816 → 23,793.25 → 23,760 → 23,720.
Notes: A heavy profile sits 23,880–23,920; first test from below often rejects on the initial attempt.

YM (Dow e‑mini)

Sentiment: Bearish under prior value; cyclicals not helping yet.
Key inflection (pivot): 44,880–44,900. Acceptance back above opens 44,960–45,020.
Resistance: 44,900 → 44,980 → 45,013–45,020 → 45,043–45,047.
Support: 44,856 spot → 44,844–44,841 → 44,810 (session low).
Notes: Multiple lower wicks near 44,84x show responsive buying, but no control until 44,9k is reclaimed.

Best trade setup (US Index Futures – today)

Primary: NQ short on rejection of 23,880–23,920 value shelf

Entry: 23,875–23,905 on a failed auction or delta flip back below 23,870.
Stop: 23,945.
Targets: 23,816 first, 23,793 second. Stretch 23,760 if momentum persists.
Why: Trading below value with a well‑defined overhead HVN; first tag typically rejects. Clean 2–3R path back to morning support.

Alternates (if momentum shifts):

ES long only on 6474 regain and hold; targets 6488 then 6494 with a stop back under 6468.
YM long only on 44,900 acceptance; targets 44,980 then 45,015 with a stop under 44,860.

Risk notes: Use smaller size into the first test of these shelves; add only on acceptance. If ES and YM reclaim their pivots while NQ lags, expect chop—stand down on fresh shorts until NQ confirms under 23,850 again.