Financial Market Levels 

Week of August 11, 2025

📉 ES (S&P 500 E-mini Futures) — Bearish Bias

COT: Net positions deeply negative (-163k), institutions adding shorts.

Chart: Price stalling after a strong run, forming a weekly rejection wick — near-term resistance around 6,450–6,500.

Play: Look for failed retests of 6,450–6,480 to short into weakness.

Conviction: 8/10 Bearish

Targets: 6,320 then 6,200

Stop: Above 6,500 weekly close.



📉 RTY (Russell 2000) — Weakest Index

COT: Net positions -12,851, shorts rising, small caps under institutional pressure.

Chart: Weekly reversal candle forming under 2,250, unable to sustain above June highs.

Play: Sell rallies into 2,245–2,260.

Conviction: 8.5/10 Bearish

Targets: 2,180 then 2,140

Stop: Close above 2,275.




📉 YM (Dow Jones E-mini Futures) — Bearish Bias

COT: Net positions negative (-3,915), recent shift from mildly bullish to bearish.

Chart: Lower high potentially forming under 44,600; weak bounce attempt.

Play: Short rejections near 44,400–44,500.

Conviction: 7.5/10 Bearish

Targets: 43,800 then 43,200

Stop: Close above 44,700.



📈 NQ (NASDAQ 100 E-mini Futures) — Relative Strength

COT: Net positions positive ( 33,948), institutions still holding longs.

Chart: Price near highs, consolidation just under 23,800; still in an uptrend but extended.

Play: Buy dips toward 23,400 if ES/YM aren’t breaking down sharply; otherwise, avoid long exposure.

Conviction: 6/10 Bullish (conditional)

Targets: 24,100 then 24,400

Stop: Close below 23,200.



⚠ Key Takeaways

ES, YM, and RTY are bearish on both COT and charts — short rallies.

NQ is divergent strength, but risk of rollover increases if broad market selling accelerates.

VIX COT suggests hedge demand is rising, favoring downside plays in equities.

Disclaimer: Information is for education purposes only.